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| Understanding the Medium Term Recommendations | |
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Your attention is drawn first of all the "Overall Market Strategy" which in the example recommends that one do nothing but "wait". Noting that it takes a very strong swimmer to overcome the current, one should only be a share buyer when the recommendation is (in ascending order of urgency) to "Prepare to Buy", "Buy" or "Buy, Buy, Buy." However, when the recommendation is "Prepare to Sell", "Sell" or "Sell, Sell, Sell", one should seriously consider selling everything but one's highest-quality shares. How to determine quality? The simplest guide is the Index of Value. The bigger the index the better the share. Shares are selected in four categories in descending order of risk. Blue Chips are a high quality group of companies which for a minimum of ten years have never reduced their dividends. The Royals are in their turn the very best of the latter while the Aristocrats are the very best of the fourth category; the Rising Stars which are companies that for less than ten years have been paying consistently rising dividends. Investors looking for higher than average long-term capital gains combined with the highest possible level of safety should ideally chose their investments only from the Royals group. Those who are looking for a significantly higher rate of both dividend and capital growth and can afford a commensurately higher risk profile might concentrate upon the Aristocrats. The Blue Chips represent a compromise between the risk and growth characteristics of the Royals and Aristocrats. A balanced portfolio should ideally consist of equal value blocks of no fewer than five and no more than ten shares and should not normally contain more than a 20% exposure to the Aristocrats. Usually your investment choice should be the topmost share in each selection category and our quoted performance statistics have been derived from this approach. However, this decision should be modified by your own investment requirements. Thus, investors who prefer to hold their shares for long-term growth should look for shares with the highest Index of Value while those prepared to buy and sell with reasonable frequency should choose the most underpriced share i.e. the share with the greatest negative value in the Over/Under Priced % column. It is advisable to select shares in which the current earnings growth rate is not less than the 1-Year dividend growth rate and in which the 1-Year Dividend Growth % exceeds the 5 Year which in turn exceeds the 10 year dividend growth rate. |